Space Climate 7:

Space Climate Symposium on July 8-11 , 2019

Space Climate 7 Meeting Abstract

Information theoretic approach to discovering causalities in the solar cycle

Simon Wing (The Johns Hopkins University)

Jay Johnson, Andrews University

The causal parameters and response lag times of the solar cycle dynamics are investigated with transfer entropy, which can determine the amount of information transfer from one variable to another. The causal dependency of the solar cycle parameters is bidirectional. The transfer of information from the solar polar field to the sunspot number (SSN) peaks at lag time (tau) ~ 3040 months, but thereafter it remains at a persistent low level for at least 400 months (~ 3 solar cycles) for the period 19062014. The latter may indicate the persistency of the polar fields from cycle to cycle. It may lend support to the idea that the polar fields from the last 3 or more solar cycles can affect the production of SSN of the subsequent cycle. There is also a similarly long term information transfer from the SSN to the polar field. Both the meridional flow speed and flux emergence (proxied by the SSN) transfer information to the polar field, but one transfers more information than the other, depending on the lag times. The meridional flow speed transfers more information to the polar field than SSN at tau ~2830 months and at tau ~90110 months, which may be consistent with some flux transfer dynamo models and some surface flux transport models. However, the flux emergence transfers more information to the polar field than the meridional flow at tau ~6080 months, which may be consistent with a recently developed surface flux transport model. The transfer of information from the meridional flow to SSN peaks at tau ~110120 months (~1 solar cycle), suggesting that the meridional flow can be used to predict SSN about one cycle ahead

Mode of presentation: oral (Need to be confirmed by the SOC)

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