François Labonville, Paul Charbonneau (Université de Montréal)
The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. The coupled 2×2D Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model, developed in Lemerle & Charbonneau (2017), offers such versatility, with an inherent calibration on observations.
In Labonville, Charbonneau & Lemerle (2018), we develop a data-driven version of the model, which we use to forecast properties of upcoming sunspot cycle 25. The two free parameters of the models are fixed by requiring the model to reproduce cycle 24 upon being driven by active region data for cycle 23. Our forecasting model incorporates self-consistently the expected fluctuations associated with stochastic variations in properties of emerging active regions, most notably the scatter in the tilt angle of the line segment joining the opposite polarity focii of bipolar magnetic regions, as embodied in Joy’s Law. By carrying out ensemble forecasts with statistically independent realizations of active region parameters, we can produce error bars on our forecasts that capture the impact of this physical source of fluctuations.
Mode of presentation: oral (Need to be confirmed by the SOC)