Robertus Erdelyi University of Sheffield
In this presentation, we address newly discovered pre-flare and CME behavioural patterns in delta-type active regions by focusing on their evolution as a function of height above the solar surface in a 3D and link these to long-term solar cycle evolution. Here, we also further probe and apply the concept of the pre-flare behavioural patterns using a magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) simulation generating solar-like flares. We introduce and discuss the relevant properties and the capability of pre-flare/CME tracking of the horizontal magnetic field evolution in the delta-spots from the photosphere towards the chromosphere, Transition Region and low corona. We show that, at a certain and specific height, the identified precursor(s) form much earlier than at the photosphere or at other heights. The capability of prediction lead time could be increase with about at least between 4 - 10 hours. Therefore we present a new and considerably improved tool to identify the optimum conditions for flare and CME prediction applicable to the solar atmosphere in the context of solar cycle variation.
Mode of presentation: oral (Need to be confirmed by the SOC)