Space Climate 7 Meeting Abstract
Assessing the predictive capabilities of avalanche models of solar flares.
Christian Thibeault (Université de Montréal)
Paul Charbonneau (Université de Montréal, Montréal, Canada), Benoit Tremblay (Université de Montréal, Montréal, Canada), Antoine Strugarek (CEA/Irfu Université Paris-Diderot CNRS/INSU, France), Laura F. Morales (Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina)
X-class solar flares are among the largest (and rarest) eruptive phenomena of the Sun. They are often accompanied by the acceleration of energetic particles which can have significant impacts on Earth's environment. The statistical properties of large eruptive events can be reproduced by self-organized criticality (SOC) models such as avalanche models. These computationally inexpensive models could be used to simulate long term flare occurrences under different forcing regimes linked to varying amplitudes of individual activity cycle. Our recent efforts have focused on sampling the stochasticity of these avalanche-type models to assess their ability to forecast large flaring events.
Mode of presentation: poster