Space Climate 7 Meeting Abstract
Can 3D whole-prominence fine structure models be used for predictions of mass budget of CMEs throughout a solar cycle?
Stanislav Gunar (Astronomical Institute of Czech Academy of Science)
Duncan H. Mackay; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews
Two complex 3D models, which simulate entire prominences with their numerous fine structures distributed within the prominence magnetic field, were developed recently. The first of these 3D Whole-Prominence Fine Structure (WPFS) models was developed by Gunár and Mackay (2015) and the second by Gunár, Aulanier, Dudík, Heinzel, and Schmieder (2018). The plasma of the simulated prominence fine structures is located in pre-existing dips of the prominence magnetic field and has realistic density and temperature distributions including the prominence-corona transition region. The 3D WPFS models thus allow us to study the distribution and the mass of the prominence plasma contained in prominence magnetic field configurations (see e.g. Gunár and Mackay, 2016). This plasma may represent the bulk of the material ejected by CMEs into the interplanetary space. In the present work, we investigate the potential of using the 3D WPFS models for predictions of the amount of mass in prominences/filaments throughout a solar cycle prior to the onset of CMEs. Such predictions, based on global solar magnetic field models, could contribute to the assessment of the potentially geo-effective mass budget of future solar cycles.
Mode of presentation: poster